Jeb Bush’s New Show of Confidence Is Failing to Connect With Republicans

WATERLOO, Iowa — This ought to be Jeb Bush’s time.

He laid out a detailed plan to crush the Islamic State three months before the Paris terrorist attacks. He gave a well-received speech on rebuilding America’s military at the Citadel two weeks ago. He has shown new confidence discussing terrorism, the Syrian refugee crisis and American values, and how they intertwine.

But instead of winning a second look from voters, Mr. Bush continues to be ignored, and to languish in the polls, even as the nation contends with what he calls “serious times that require serious leadership.”

In an appearance at an Iowa military museum here on Tuesday, where a World War II-era P-51 Mustang was suspended overhead, the stage was set for Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, to highlight his credentials to be commander in chief. He detailed his positions on defeating the Islamic State, and invoked his father’s waging of the 1991 Persian Gulf war.

Continue reading the mThe publisher of New Hampshire’s most influential newspaper, The Union Leader, which endorsed the New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, last week, praised Mr. Christie’s credentials to keep the nation safe, and, contrasting him with Mr. Bush, said he “speaks with the bark off, as we say in New Hampshire.”

1. Mr. Bush’s team acknowledges that he has had a rough patch, but expects improvement. “Everybody will have their ups and downs,” said Al Cardenas, an adviser and friend of Mr. Bush’s. “Our hope is the governor has gotten pounded as hard as anybody has possibly gotten pounded.” Hopefully Mr. Bush’s narrative will improve, Mr. Cardenas added, and “a comeback story is pretty good.”
2. “It worked for McCain in 2008, and I think the governor has the resources and talent to make it work for him,” he said.
3. Mr. Bush’s sustained rough patch comes as his donors are set to gather in Miami this weekend for a quarterly retreat. Privately, donors and Bush supporters concede they are worried about Mr. Bush’s downward trajectory and had expected his numbers to start ticking up by now.
4. But their public posture remains cautiously optimistic. Voters, especially those in Iowa and New Hampshire, decide late, they say, and Mr. Bush will get another chance to win them over early next year.
5. David Oman, a senior Bush adviser in Iowa, said Republicans needed to come to grips with what it would mean for Mr. Trump to win the nomination, let alone a general election.

“I hope during the holidays people will sit down and take a hard look at who is best able to win the election and able to govern,” Mr. Oman said, “and less about who can shout the loudest and throw rocks.”